The Canadian real estate market last month brought us a lot of the same news and trends as previous months; shrinking sales, increasing months of inventory and a general concern about the real estate market in Canada. Are things really as worrisome as some people might suggest? I don’t think so. Below are the statistics and analysis for August 2018 from Canada’s four major markets and my predictions on where we are headed.
Toronto (GTA), ON
I wanted to dive deeper in the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) this month. It’s clear that 2018 is much different from 2017 and 2016, but how does this year compare to a decade ago? I took a look at the data and the findings might surprise you. Averaging out the sales month over month, we can project 80+ thousand sales in 2018, on par with 10 years ago. However, I believe we will have a stronger fall and total sales should land closer to 85,000 by year end. The average sale price is the highest we’ve seen and with just 2.6 months of inventory, the Greater Toronto Area market is the strongest in Canada.
Diving deeper into micro sales data, the Toronto (416) Semi-Detached market is incredible strong with just 1.4 M.O.I., and condos aren’t far behind sitting at 1.7 M.O.I. Overall, the Toronto and GTA market holistically is doing incredibly well and I suspect it will continue to get stronger as the year continues. For a full look at my analysis, watch my video below.
Sales are down considerably according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s (REBGV) monthly stats. Comparing August 2017 to August 2018,, sales have dropped 36.6% and landed at just 1,929 last month. With active listings on the rise, REBGV’s M.O.I. sits at 6.1.
Detached properties are feeling the brunt of the decline and are sitting at 11 months of inventory. This is largely because detached properties are still averaging $1.56 million dollars. If we look back 10 years, the projected 28,000 total sales for the year is the lowest we’ve since 2012, however, prices remain strong with an average price of $1.08 million. For a full look at the REBGV numbers, watch the video below.
Calgary sales have remained relatively stable year over year. The projected 17,385 total sales for 2018 is only 1500 lower than 2017. August 2018 did see a dip in sales of 6.9% compared to August 2017, and active listings have increased 22.7%, equating to 5.4 months of inventory. The average price of a home in the Calgary Real Estate Board is up 1% and sits at $483,000, respectively. Detached homes remain incredibly competitive with an average price of $563,000 so it makes sense the detached market has the lowest MOI at just 4.8. For a complete look at all of the CREB stats, click my video below.
The Edmonton Real Estate Board is looking just like months past. Despite a slight decline in sales last month, months of inventory actually fell to 6.1 in August compared to 6.2 in July, 2018. This follows a steady trend we’ve seen all year in Edmonton with M.O.I. consistently found between 5.5 and 6.8. The average price did fall $5,000 compared to July, 2018 but is still up $5,000 when compared to January, 2018. Year-over-year, the average price of an Edmonton property has fallen just -2.3%. Edmonton remains one of Canada’s most consistent markets and we shouldn’t see a whole lot different in the months to come. For a full look at the numbers, check out my video below.
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