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March 2019 Market Update | Not Every Quarter is Worth 25%

We have reached Q2 of 2019 and are officially entering the busiest time in our industry. Data shows that, regardless of geographic location, sales reach their highest totals in Q2. This is your opportunity to rebound if your Q1 numbers were off.

As real estate professionals, it’s important to follow trends and adapt to what the data tells you. Year-over-year, markets are generally weaker and require a different perspective. Month-over-month data is projecting consistently stronger markets and proportionate gains. This tells us that tomorrow should be better than yesterday, but we are in a much different market from years past.

In this review, I am taking a look at historical quarterly data to prove that not every quarter in the year is equal. I calculate month-over-month data, year-over-year Q1 sales, average price over the last 5 years, micro markets and more.

VANCOUVER, BC

All things considered, March was a relatively strong month for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV). Sales were up 16.4% month-over-month and reached a total of 1,727. There were 12,774 active listings and M.O.I. was down to 7.4 from 7.8 the month before. Looking back 5 years, Q1 sales are at their lowest point with a total of 4,314 sales. This is down considerably from 2016’s record setting quarterly sales of 11,864. Looking forward, REBGV’s strongest quarter is upon us. Last year, 32% of all recorded sales took place in Q2. I believe this trend will continue this year and now is your opportunity to rebound after a shaky Q1. Looking at micro markets, detached, townhouse, and apartment, prices all fell year-over-year. To get a closer look at the numbers, take a look at my video review here.

Click here to download Vancouver’s March market slides.

TORONTO, ON

2019 continues to be a strong year for the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB). Sales are up 43% month-over-month sitting at 7187. M.O.I. dropped 18% to 2.2 while average price rose 1% to $788,000. Looking back 5 years, Q1 sales performance is healthy, but considerably lower than our record breaking years in 2015 and 2016. Year-over-year, Q1 sales are only down -0.6% and sit at 16,221. Last year, 30% of all sales took place in Q2. Looking back 5 years, the average price of a residential property in TREB is at its highest point since 2017 sitting at $788,000 and an average of 21 days on market. To take a closer look at the numbers, including micro market data for the Toronto Real Estate Board, watch my video analysis here.

Click here to download Toronto’s March market slides.

CALGARY, AB

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) had a strong March, seeing it’s months of inventory drop -17.7% to 5 from 6 month-over-month. Sales increased 36.2% to 1,329 and prices fell -0.2% to an average of $460,000. Looking back 5 years at Q1 sales, CREB sits at its lowest Q1 sales total with 3,109. This is -9% from 2018 when we reached 3,417 sales in Q1. Like the rest of our markets in this review, Q2 is Calgary’s strongest quarter with 32% of sales happening between April to June. Average price for a residential property in the Calgary Real Estate Board is down significantly from 2018, going from $495,000 to $460,000 year-over-year. Taking a closer look at average prices values, all major residential micro markets fell in price year-over-year. To take a look at all of the data, watch my video review here.

Click here to download Calgary’s March market slides.

EDMONTON, AB

The Edmonton Real Estate Board (EREB) was up and down in all the right areas in March. Sales went up 21.7% month-over-month (1,200), months of inventory is down -8.3% from February (6.9), and the average price for a residential property in Edmonton is up 0.8% ($357,000). Q1 total sales are at their lowest in 5 years but aren’t off by much. 2019 Q1 sales are down just -7.8% from 2018 sitting at 2,985. Last year, Q2 made up 32% of total sales in the Edmonton Real Estate Board while Q1 totaled just 21%. Year-over-year, micro markets in EREB were all down. Detached, condo, and duplex/row housing all decreased in value from 2018. For a closer look at all of the data, take a look at my video review here.

Click here to download Edmonton’s March market slides.

Remember, it’s a beautiful life, make it count.

Richard