Analyzing 2020 Data and Predicting What’s Next in 2021
Welcome to 2021!
It’s a brand new year, but make no mistake, we aren’t out of the woods yet. Yes, the vaccine is here, but with a limited supply, provincial governments are considering curfews and cases continue to climb in certain parts of the country, 2021 may just be 2020 2.0.
Question: What did we learn last year?
Answer: A lot.
The entire real estate industry was turned upside down in 2020. Quarantines drastically changed the way real estate professionals did business across the country. Buyers, sellers and agents alike have adapted to this ‘New Normal’ and I believe many of these temporary solutions are likely to become permanent.
That being said, with the way the data across the country is looking right now, if you’re not busy in real estate, it has nothing to do with the market.
Welcome to 2021, together we can make it your best year, ever!
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board saw tremendous growth year-over-year in December. With 7180 transactions, sales were up 63% in December 2020 compared to December 2019. The average price of a Toronto property also climbed 11% in the same period to $932,000.
Comparing 2019 quarterly data to 2020 shows just how devastating the impact of the pandemic was, but it also provides great insight into how well we bounced back.
Q2 sales in 2020 dropped -41.6% year-over-year with just 16,282 sales between April to June. During that same time period in 2019, sales reached 27,891 total. However, 2020 Q3 data shows a 36.5% increase in sales year-over-year and and 32.7% increase in sales year-over-year in Q4 2020.
The big question remains: What can we expect in 2021? I talk about the Toronto condo market, the effects of working remotely and why I believe 2021 sales could surpass 2020 numbers.
The Calgary Real Estate Board saw massive year-over-year growth in December. With 1199 total sales in December 2020, sales were up 40% year-over-year. Months of inventory sits at just 3.1, the lowest it’s been in Calgary since June, 2017! As hot as the market is, average price has actually dropped slightly year-over-year by $2,000 and now sits at $448,000.
When looking back to 2019, we see just how impactful the pandemic has been on Calgary real estate sales.
Q2 2020 saw a -35.2% drop in sales compared to Q2 2019. However, Q3 had an impressive rebound with an 11% increase year-over-year. Q4 performed even better, with 27% more sales in Q4 2020 than one year previous.
When looking at total sales in 2020, the Calgary Real Estate Board is reporting its lowest total since 2016 with 16,147, respectively. This results in a -1.7% drop in year-over-year total sales from 2019.
What is my prediction for Calgary real estate in 2021? Pending any major lockdown like what we saw in Q2 2020, I believe we will see consistent sales throughout the year. Calgary is boasting its lowest months of inventory since 2017, which I believe will make for a strong start to the new year!
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is reporting excellent year-over-year results for December 2020. Sales are up 31% year-over-year and months of inventory has dropped 36%, sitting at just 4.5.
Average price saw a small increase year-over-year in December of 2.5% with the average Edmonton property sitting at $362,000.
Year-over-year quarterly results show that 2020 outperformed 2019 in every quarter aside from Q2.
Q2 2020 sales fell -27.7% year-over-year. We saw an immediate rebound in Q3 with a 21.3% increase in sales year-over-year and a 27.3% increase year-over-year in Q4. Total sales in 2020 outperformed 2019 slightly by 2.6% with a total of 17,076.
What can we expect going forward in the Edmonton real estate market? It’s no secret but we’re still dealing with COVID-19, however, we have the fundamentals for a great market. Overall, pending any large provincial lockdown, I think 2021 in Edmonton will look very similar to the last 6 months of 2020. Take a look at my REALTORS® Association of Edmonton video for more insight into the new year!
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is reporting a 53% increase in year-over-year sales with 3093 total sales in December 2020. Months of inventory is also down -35.3% year-over-year, sitting at just 2.8. Benchmark price increased 4.6% in the same time period, sitting at $1,047,400, respectively.
Keeping consistent with the rest of the country, year-over-year quarterly results show that 2020 outperformed 2019 in every quarter aside from Q2.
Q2 2020 sales fell -23% year-over-year. We saw an immediate rebound in Q3 with a 37.9% increase in sales year-over-year and a 33.5% increase year-over-year in Q4. Total sales in 2020 outperformed 2019 by 22.1% with 30,944 total sales.
The big question remains: What can we expect in 2021? With low interest rates, I can see the Vancouver housing market remaining strong. In my market update video, I talk about the Vancouver condo market, the effects of working remotely and why I believe 2021 sales could surpass 2020 numbers.
Remember, it’s a beautiful life, make it count.