Year End Market Update
It’s amazing what one year can do. Canadian real estate in 2018 had a lot of consistencies, but not the ones we might have hoped for. Depending on where you reside in Canada will determine exactly the type of year you had in real estate. In some parts of the country the detached housing market was hit extremely hard, and in other parts, it thrived. Some cities across Canada had growing condo markets, while in others, months of inventory continued to rise.
Carl Sagan wrote, “You have to know the past to understand the present,” and I couldn’t agree more. To understand what is currently happening in the Canadian real estate market, we must first look at years past. In my review below, I go through the last five years of data to help see how 2018 compares to years past, as well as provide my prediction as to what 2019 will hold. Let’s get started.
Looking back five years, 2018 was the lowest recorded year of home sales for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV). Reaching just 24,619 sales in 2018, we saw a -32% drop in home sales in greater Vancouver year-over-year. In 2015 we saw record high annual sales reaching 42,326, but since then rate increases and foreign buyer home taxes have put a stop to such growth. Since 2015 we have continued to see home sales drop year-over-year. To see the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board stats and to hear what my prediction is for REBGV in 2019 – watch my video analysis here.
Much like the Vancouver market, the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) had its lowest sales on record since 2014. TREB had 77,426 total home sales in 2018, down -16% year-over-year when we reached 92,294 in 2017. This is a dramatic, but expected decline in sales since this historic year in 2016 when TREB reached 113,133 total annual sales. The total average price in 2018 didn’t drop as aggressively though, and sits at $787,300, down -4% year-over-year. To get a more detailed look at the market stats and to hear my prediction for 2019, take a look at my video analysis here.
Over the last five years with the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), nothing has compared to the total annual sales since 2014. Reaching 25,543 in 2014, we have not passed the 20,000 sale mark since. Last year, CREB recorded 16,144 total sales, down -14.5% year-over-year. Looking at a five year average price comparison, 2018 wasn’t far off what CREB has found to be consistent. Over the last five years, not one year has gone above $481,000. In 2018 the average price was $475,531, down only -1.1% compared to 2017. Find out what I predict 2019 to be like in the Calgary Real Estate Board by watching my analysis here.
While there were fewer sales happening in the Edmonton Real Estate Board (EREB) last year compared to years past, the drop wasn’t devastating. In 2018 we saw sales reach 15,519, down -5.6% compared to 2017’s 16,435. In 2014, EREB reached 19,020 sales, but since then not a single year has produced more than 17,400. Taking a look at average home prices over the last five years, 2018 was the lowest recorded average price since 2014. Last year EREB averaged $369,607, down -1.3% year-over-year. Take a more indepth look at the Edmonton Real Estate Board market stats and listen to my 2019 prediction in my video analysis here.
Overall, 2018 provided a dose of what I expect will be the new norm. What does this mean for real estate professionals? We need to adapt and change just as the real estate market does. You can’t control what the market does, but you can control how you adjust. Provide value, insights and help your clients make the best decisions for themselves, and I promise 2019 will be your brightest year yet.
Remember, it’s a beautiful life, make it count.